UK Biobank Research Articles

Secondary Prevention in Patients With Stroke Versus Myocardial Infarction: Analysis of 2 National Cohorts.

The implementation of preventive therapies among patients with stroke remains inadequately explored, especially when compared with patients with myocardial infarction (MI), despite sharing similar vascular risk profiles. We tested the hypothesis that participants with a history of stroke have a worse cardiovascular prevention profile in comparison to participants with MI. In cross-sectional analyses within the UK Biobank and All of Us Research Program, involving 14 760 (9193 strokes, 5567 MIs) and 7315 (2948 strokes, 4367 MIs) participants, respectively, we evaluated cardiovascular prevention profiles assessing low-density lipoprotein (<100 mg/dL), blood pressure (systolic, <140 mm Hg; and diastolic, <90 mm Hg), statin and antiplatelet use, and a cardiovascular prevention score that required meeting at least 3 of these criteria. The results revealed that, within the UK Biobank, patients with stroke had significantly lower odds of meeting all the preventive criteria compared with patients with MI: low-density lipoprotein control (odds ratio [OR], 0.73 [95% CI, 0.68-0.78]; P<0.001), blood pressure control (OR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.59-0.68]; P<0.001), statin use (OR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.42-0.48]; P<0.001), antiplatelet therapy use (OR, 0.30 [95% CI, 0.27-0.32]; P<0.001), and cardiovascular prevention score (OR, 0.42 [95% CI, 0.39-0.45]; P<0.001). Similar patterns were observed in the All of Us Research Program, with significant differences across all comparisons (P<0.05), and further analysis suggested that the odds of having a good cardiovascular prevention score were influenced by race and ethnicity as well as neighborhood deprivation levels (interaction P<0.05 in both cases). In 2 independent national cohorts, patients with stroke showed poorer cardiovascular prevention profiles and lower adherence to guideline-directed therapies compared with patients with MI. These findings underscore the need to explore the reasons behind the underuse of secondary prevention in vulnerable stroke survivors.

Insomnia symptom prevalence in England: a comparison of cross-sectional self-reported data and primary care records in the UK Biobank

ObjectivesWe aimed to use a large dataset to compare self-reported and primary care measures of insomnia symptom prevalence in England and establish whether they identify participants with similar characteristics.DesignCross-sectional study...

European and US Guideline-Based Statin Eligibility, Genetically Predicted Coronary Artery Disease, and the Risk of Major Coronary Events.

A study was designed to investigate whether the coronary artery disease polygenic risk score (CAD-PRS) may guide lipid-lowering treatment initiation as well as deferral in primary prevention beyond established clinical risk scores. Participants were 311 799 individuals from the UK Biobank free of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and lipid-lowering treatment at baseline. Participants were categorized as statin indicated, statin indication unclear, or statin not indicated as defined by the European and US guidelines on statin use. For a median of 11.9 (11.2-12.6) years, 8196 major coronary events developed. CAD-PRS added to European-Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (European-SCORE2) and US-Pooled Cohort Equation (US-PCE) identified 18% and 12% of statin-indication-unclear individuals whose risk of major coronary events were the same as or higher than the average risk of statin-indicated individuals and 16% and 12% of statin-indicated individuals whose major coronary event risks were the same as or lower than the average risk of statin-indication-unclear individuals. For major coronary and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events, CAD-PRS improved C-statistics greater among statin-indicated or statin-indication-unclear than statin-not-indicated individuals. For atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events, CAD-PRS added to the European evaluation and US equation resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 13.6% (95% CI, 11.8-15.5) and 14.7% (95% CI, 13.1-16.3) among statin-indicated, 10.8% (95% CI, 9.6-12.0) and 15.3% (95% CI, 13.2-17.5) among statin-indication-unclear, and 0.9% (95% CI, 0.6-1.3) and 3.6% (95% CI, 3.0-4.2) among statin-not-indicated individuals. CAD-PRS may guide statin initiation as well as deferral among statin-indication-unclear or statin-indicated individuals as defined by the European and US guidelines. CAD-PRS had little clinical utility among statin-not-indicated individuals.

Determinants of plasma levels of proglucagon and the metabolic impact of glucagon receptor signalling: a UK Biobank study.

Glucagon and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) are derived from the same precursor; proglucagon, and dual agonists of their receptors are currently being explored for the treatment of obesity and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Elevated levels of endogenous glucagon (hyperglucagonaemia) have been linked with hyperglycaemia in individuals with type 2 diabetes but are also observed in individuals with obesity and MASLD. GLP-1 levels have been reported to be largely unaffected or even reduced in similar conditions. We investigated potential determinants of plasma proglucagon and associations of glucagon receptor signalling with metabolic diseases based on data from the UK Biobank. We used exome sequencing data from the UK Biobank for ~410,000 white participants to identify glucagon receptor variants and grouped them based on their known or predicted signalling. Data on plasma levels of proglucagon estimated using Olink technology were available for a subset of the cohort (~40,000). We determined associations of glucagon receptor variants and proglucagon with BMI, type 2 diabetes and liver fat (quantified by liver MRI) and performed survival analyses to investigate if elevated proglucagon predicts type 2 diabetes development. Obesity, MASLD and type 2 diabetes were associated with elevated plasma levels of proglucagon independently of each other. Baseline proglucagon levels were associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes development over a 14 year follow-up period (HR 1.13; 95% CI 1.09, 1.17; n=1562; p=1.3×10-12). This association was of the same magnitude across strata of BMI. Carriers of glucagon receptor variants with reduced cAMP signalling had elevated levels of proglucagon (β 0.847; 95% CI 0.04, 1.66; n=17; p=0.04), and carriers of variants with a predicted frameshift mutation had higher levels of liver fat compared with the wild-type reference group (β 0.504; 95% CI 0.03, 0.98; n=11; p=0.04). Our findings support the suggestion that glucagon receptor signalling is involved in MASLD, that plasma levels of proglucagon are linked to the risk of type 2 diabetes development, and that proglucagon levels are influenced by genetic variation in the glucagon receptor, obesity, type 2 diabetes and MASLD. Determining the molecular signalling pathways downstream of glucagon receptor activation may guide the development of biased GLP-1/glucagon co-agonist with improved metabolic benefits. All coding is available through https://github.com/nicwin98/UK-Biobank-GCG.

Genetic influence on within-person longitudinal change in anthropometric traits in the UK Biobank

The causes of temporal fluctuations in adult traits are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the genetic determinants of within-person trait variability of 8 repeatedly measured anthropometric traits in 50,117 individuals from the UK Biobank. We found that within-person (non-directional) variability had a SNP-based heritability of 2–5% for height, sitting height, body mass index (BMI) and weight (P ≤\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\le$$\\end{document} 2.4 × 10−3). We also analysed longitudinal trait change and show a loss of both average height and weight beyond about 70 years of age. A variant tracking the Alzheimer’s risk APOE-E4\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${{{{{\\mathcal{E}}}}}}4$$\\end{document} allele (rs429358) was significantly associated with weight loss (β\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\beta$$\\end{document} = −0.047 kg per yr, s.e. 0.007, P = 2.2 × 10−11), and using 2-sample Mendelian Randomisation we detected a relationship consistent with causality between decreased lumbar spine bone mineral density and height loss (bxy = 0.011, s.e. 0.003, P = 3.5 × 10−4). Finally, population-level variance quantitative trait loci (vQTL) were consistent with within-person variability for several traits, indicating an overlap between trait variability assessed at the population or individual level. Our findings help elucidate the genetic influence on trait-change within an individual and highlight disease risks associated with these changes.

Feasibility of multiorgan risk prediction with routinely collected diagnostics: a prospective cohort study in the UK Biobank

ObjectivesDespite rising rates of multimorbidity, existing risk assessment tools are mostly limited to a single outcome of interest. This study tests the feasibility of producing multiple disease risk estimates with...

Association of apolipoprotein B and apolipoprotein A1 levels with social determinants of health and coronary artery disease mortality in the United Kingdom Biobank - is there a need for consideration?

A higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors has previously been shown to be associated with adverse social determinants of health (SDoH) and to explain some of their impact on cardiovascular risk. Whether there is a relationship between lipid parameters, specifically apolipoprotein B (apoB), apolipoprotein A1 (apoA1), their ratio (apoB/apoA1), and SDoH, and whether coronary artery disease (CAD) mortality risk associated with circulating apoB and apoA1 is modified by SDoH was unclear. We investigated associations of apoA1, apoB, and apoB/apoA1 with the level of education and household income and their joint impact on CAD mortality in participants of the UK Biobank (UKB) with and without prevalent CAD at enrollment. Hazard ratios for CAD mortality were estimated after adjusting for SDoH and clinical covariates. In 292 804 participants without established CAD, apoB, and the apoB/apoA1 ratio were inversely associated with level of education and household income, whereas apoA1 was positively associated with household income. Adjustment for education level and household income coupled with the number of people living in the household did not attenuate the association between the apolipoprotein levels and incident CAD mortality rates. In a cohort of 13 826 participants with prevalent CAD, apoA1 levels were inversely associated with level of education. Higher apoB levels were only associated with greater CAD mortality risk after adjustment for risk factors. Risk estimation for CAD death through circulating apoA1 levels requires accounting for significant differences by sex. Circulating lipid parameters are associated with SDoH in individuals without CAD. CAD mortality risk estimation through apoA1 and apoB levels does not require accounting for SDoH.

The impact of sunlight exposure on brain structural markers in the UK Biobank

Sunlight is closely intertwined with daily life. It remains unclear whether there are associations between sunlight exposure and brain structural markers. General linear regression analysis was used to compare the differences in brain structural markers among different sunlight exposure time groups. Stratification analyses were performed based on sex, age, and diseases (hypertension, stroke, diabetes). Restricted cubic spline was performed to examine the dose–response relationship between natural sunlight exposure and brain structural markers, with further stratification by season. A negative association of sunlight exposure time with brain structural markers was found in the upper tertile compared to the lower tertile. Prolonged natural sunlight exposure was associated with the volumes of total brain (β: − 0.051, P < 0.001), white matter (β: − 0.031, P = 0.023), gray matter (β: − 0.067, P < 0.001), and white matter hyperintensities (β: 0.059, P < 0.001). These associations were more pronounced in males and individuals under the age of 60. The results of the restricted cubic spline analysis showed a nonlinear relationship between sunlight exposure and brain structural markers, with the direction changing around 2 h of sunlight exposure. This study demonstrates that prolonged exposure to natural sunlight is associated with brain structural markers change.

Memory, mood and associated neuroanatomy in individuals with steroid sulphatase deficiency (X-linked ichthyosis).

Steroid sulphatase (STS) cleaves sulphate groups from steroid hormones, and steroid (sulphate) levels correlate with mood and age-related cognitive decline. In animals, STS inhibition or deletion of the associated gene, enhances memory/neuroprotection and alters hippocampal neurochemistry. Little is known about the consequences of constitutive STS deficiency on memory-related processes in humans. We investigated self-reported memory performance (Multifactorial Memory Questionnaire), word-picture recall and recent mood (Kessler Psychological Distress Scale, K10) in adult males with STS deficiency diagnosed with the dermatological condition X-linked ichthyosis (XLI; n = 41) and in adult female carriers of XLI-associated genetic variants (n = 79); we compared results to those obtained from matched control subjects [diagnosed with ichthyosis vulgaris (IV, n = 98) or recruited from the general population (n = 250)]. Using the UK Biobank, we compared mood/memory-related neuroanatomy in carriers of genetic deletions encompassing STS (n = 28) and non-carriers (n = 34,522). We found poorer word-picture recall and lower perceived memory abilities in males with XLI and female carriers compared with control groups. XLI-associated variant carriers and individuals with IV reported more adverse mood symptoms, reduced memory contentment and greater use of memory aids, compared with general population controls. Mood and memory findings appeared largely independent. Neuroanatomical analysis only indicated a nominally-significantly larger molecular layer in the right hippocampal body of deletion carriers relative to non-carriers. In humans, constitutive STS deficiency appears associated with mood-independent impairments in memory but not with large effects on underlying brain structure; the mediating psychobiological mechanisms might be explored further in individuals with XLI and in new mammalian models lacking STS developmentally.

Sex-Specific Association Between Childhood Adversity and Accelerated Biological Aging.

Is childhood adversity associated with biological aging, and if so, does sex modify the association, and do lifestyle and mental health mediate the association? A lifespan analysis is conducted using data on 142872 participants from the UK Biobank to address these questions. Childhood adversity is assessed through the online mental health questionnaire (2016), including physical neglect, physical abuse, emotional neglect, emotional abuse, sexual abuse, and a cumulative score. Biological aging is indicated by telomere length (TL) measured from leukocyte DNA using qPCR, and the shorter TL indicates accelerated biological aging; a lifestyle score is constructed using body mass index, physical activity, drinking, smoking, and diet; mental disorder is assessed using depression, anxiety, and insomnia at the baseline survey. The results reveal a sex-specific association such that childhood adversity is associated with shorter TL in women after adjusting for covariates including polygenic risk score for TL, but not in men. Unhealthy lifestyle and mental disorder partially mediate the association in women. The proportions of indirect effects are largest for sexual and physical abuse. These findings highlight the importance of behavioral and psychological interventions in promoting healthy aging among women who experienced childhood adversity, particularly sexual and physical abuse.

Plasma proteomic biomarkers and the association between poor cardiovascular health and incident dementia: The UK Biobank study.

The study examined how plasma proteome indicators may explain the link between poor cardiovascular health (CVH) and dementia risk. The present study involved 28,974 UK Biobank participants aged 50-74y (2006-2010) at baseline (2006-2010) who were followed-up for ≤ 15 y for incidence of dementia. CVH was calculated using Life's Essential 8 (LE8) total scores. The scores were standardized and reverse coded to reflect poor CVH (LE8z_rev). OLINK proteomics was available on this sample (k = 1,463 plasma proteins). The study primarily tested the mediating effects of the plasma proteome in LE8z_rev-dementia effect. The total effect was decomposed into "mediation only" or pure indirect effect (PIE), "interaction only" or interaction referent (INTREF), "neither mediation nor interaction" or controlled direct effect (CDE), and "both mediation and interaction" or mediated interaction (INTMED). The study found poorer CVH assessed by LE8z_rev increased the risk of all-cause dementia by 11 % [per 1 SD, hazard ratio, (HR) = 1.11, 95 % CI: 1.03-1.20, p = 0.005). The study identified 11 plasma proteins with strong mediating effects, with GDF15 having the strongest association with dementia risk (per 1 SD, HR = 1.24, 95 % CI: 1.16, 1.33, P < 0.001 when LE8z_rev is set at its mean value) and the largest proportion mediated combining PIE and INTMED (62.6 %; 48 % of TE is PIE), followed by adrenomedullin or ADM. A first principal component with 10 top mediators (TNFRSF1A, GDF15, FSTL3, COL6A3, PLAUR, ADM, GFRAL, ACVRL1, TNFRSF6B, TGFA) mediated 53.6 % of the LE8z_rev-dementia effect. Using all the significant PIE (k = 526) proteins, we used OLINK Insight pathway analysis to identify key pathways, which revealed the involvement of the immune system, signal transduction, metabolism, disease, protein metabolism, hemostasis, membrane trafficking, extracellular matrix organization, developmental biology, and gene expression among others. STRING analysis revealed that five top consistent proteomic mediators were represented in two larger clusters reflecting numerous interconnected biological gene ontology pathways, most notably cytokine-mediated signaling pathway for GDF15 cluster (GO:0019221) and regulation of peptidyl-tyrosine phosphorylation for the ADM cluster (GO:0050730). Dementia is linked to poor CVH mediated by GDF15 and ADM among several key proteomic markers which collectively explained ∼ 54 % of the total effect.

A comprehensive genome-wide cross-trait analysis of sexual factors and uterine leiomyoma.

Age at first sexual intercourse (AFS) and lifetime number of sexual partners (NSP) may influence the pathogenesis of uterine leiomyoma (UL) through their associations with hormonal concentrations and uterine infections. Leveraging summary statistics from large-scale genome-wide association studies conducted in European ancestry for each trait (NAFS = 214,547; NNSP = 370,711; NUL = 302,979), we observed a significant negative genomic correlation for UL with AFS (rg = -0.11, P = 7.83×10-4), but not with NSP (rg = 0.01, P = 0.62). Four specific genomic regions were identified as contributing significant local genetic correlations to AFS and UL, including one genomic region further identified for NSP and UL. Partitioning SNP-heritability with cell-type-specific annotations, a close clustering of UL with both AFS and NSP was identified in immune and blood-related components. Cross-trait meta-analysis revealed 15 loci shared between AFS/NSP and UL, including 7 novel SNPs. Univariable two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis suggested no evidence for a causal association between genetically predicted AFS/NSP and risk of UL, nor vice versa. Multivariable MR adjusting for age at menarche or/and age at natural menopause revealed a significant causal effect of genetically predicted higher AFS on a lower risk of UL. Such effect attenuated to null when age at first birth was further included. Utilizing participant-level data from the UK Biobank, one-sample MR based on genetic risk scores yielded consistent null findings among both pre-menopausal and post-menopausal females. From a genetic perspective, our study demonstrates an intrinsic link underlying sexual factors (AFS and NSP) and UL, highlighting shared biological mechanisms rather than direct causal effects. Future studies are needed to elucidate the specific mechanisms involved in the shared genetic influences and their potential impact on UL development.

Metabolic Syndrome and the Risk of Kidney Stones: a Large-scale Cohort Study from 487,860 UK Biobank participants.

While some studies have suggested an association between metabolic syndrome and kidney stones, the quality and level of evidence in these studies vary. Whether some individual characteristics and clustering of metabolic syndrome traits increase the risk of kidney stones has not been examined in a large-scale prospective cohort. We conducted a retrospective analysis of data from a prospective cohort of 487,860 UK Biobank participants who were free from kidney stones at baseline. The presence of metabolic syndrome was based on five criteria: abdominal obesity, high triglyceride levels, low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels, high blood pressure (HBP), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate the association between metabolic syndrome and risk of kidney stones. After an average follow-up period of 12.6 years, a total of 5,213 of the 487,860 participants included in the UK Biobank study developed kidney stones. The partial traits of metabolic syndrome, including waist circumference (HR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.10-1.20), HDL cholesterol (0.66, 0.55-0.79), HBP (1.11, 1.03-1.19) and T2DM (1.14, 1.04-1.21), were independently associated with the occurrence of kidney stones. The clustering of metabolic syndrome is significantly associated with kidney stone formation, and as the number of metabolic syndrome traits increases, the risk of kidney stones gradually increases. Metabolic syndrome is a significant and independent risk factor for the development of kidney stones. This association suggests that kidney stones may represent a systemic disorder influenced by the interplay of various metabolic risk factors.

The influence of trinucleotide repeats in the androgen receptor gene on androgen-related traits and diseases.

Trinucleotide repeats in the androgen receptor have been proposed to influence testosterone signaling in men, but the clinical relevance of these trinucleotide repeats remains controversial. To examine how androgen receptor trinucleotide repeat lengths affect androgen-related traits and disease risks and whether they influence the clinical importance of circulating testosterone levels. We quantified CAG and GGC repeat lengths in the androgen receptor (AR) gene of European-ancestry male participants in UK Biobank from whole-genome and whole-exome sequence data using ExpansionHunter, and tested associations with androgen-related traits and diseases. We also examined whether the associations between testosterone levels and these outcomes were affected by adjustment for the repeat lengths. We successfully quantified the repeat lengths from whole-genome and/or whole-exome sequence data in 181,217 males. Both repeat lengths were shown to be positively associated with circulating total testosterone level and bone mineral density, whereas CAG repeat length was negatively associated with male-pattern baldness, but their effects were relatively small and were not associated with most of the other outcomes. Circulating total testosterone level was associated with various outcomes, but this relationship was not affected by adjustment for the repeat lengths. In this large-scale study, we found that longer CAG and GGC repeats in the AR gene influence androgen resistance, elevate circulating testosterone level via a feedback loop and play a role in some androgen-targeted tissues. Generally, however, circulating testosterone level is a more important determinant of androgen action in males than repeat lengths.

Discordance among apoB, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides: implications for cardiovascular prevention.

Despite growing evidence that apolipoprotein B (apoB) is the most accurate marker of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, its adoption in clinical practice has been low. This investigation sought to determine whether low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides are sufficient for routine cardiovascular care. A sample of 293 876 UK Biobank adults (age: 40-73 years, 42% men), free of cardiovascular disease, with a median follow-up for new-onset ASCVD of 11 years was included. Distribution of apoB at pre-specified levels of LDL-C, non-HDL-C, and triglycerides was examined graphically, and 10-year ASCVD event rates were compared for high vs. low apoB. Residuals of apoB were constructed after regressing apoB on LDL-C, non-HDL-C, and log-transformed triglycerides and used as predictors in a proportional hazards regression model for new-onset ASCVD adjusted for standard risk factors, including HDL-C. ApoB was highly correlated with LDL-C and non-HDL-C (Pearson's r = .96, P < .001 for both) but less so with log triglycerides (r = .42, P < .001). However, apoB ranges necessary to capture 95% of all observations at pre-specified levels of LDL-C, non-HDL-C, or triglycerides were wide, spanning 85.8-108.8 md/dL when LDL-C 130 mg/dL, 88.3-112.4 mg/dL when non-HDL-C 160 mg/dL, and 67.8-147.4 md/dL when triglycerides 115 mg/dL. At these levels (±10 mg/dL), 10-year ASCVD rates for apoB above mean + 1 SD vs. below mean - 1 SD were 7.3 vs. 4.0 for LDL-C, 6.4 vs. 4.6 for non-HDL-C, and 7.0 vs. 4.6 for triglycerides (all P < .001). With 19 982 new-onset ASCVD events on follow-up, in the adjusted model, residual apoB remained statistically significant after accounting for LDL-C and HDL-C (hazard ratio 1.06, 95% confidence interval 1.0-1.07), after accounting for non-HDL-C and HDL-C (hazard ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.06), and after accounting for triglycerides and HDL-C (hazard ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.12-1.15). None of the residuals of LDL-C, non-HDL-C, or of log triglycerides remained significant when apoB was included in the model. High variability of apoB at individual levels of LDL-C, non-HDL-C, and triglycerides coupled with meaningful differences in 10-year ASCVD rates and significant residual information contained in apoB for prediction of new-onset ASCVD events demonstrate that LDL-C, non-HDL-C, and triglycerides are not adequate proxies for apoB in clinical care.

A causal analysis of the relationship between exposure to sunlight and colorectal cancer risk: A Mendelian randomization study.

Several observational studies have found that exposure to sunlight reduces the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, sun exposure remains ambiguous in its relationship to CRC. We carried out a Mendelian randomization (MR) study to explore the potential associations between them. We examined the exposure to sunlight summary statistics of the UK Biobank Consortium using a 2-sample MR analysis. Using data from the FinnGen consortium, we derived summary statistics for CRC. We conducted our analysis with various methods, incorporating inverse variance weighted (IVW) along with 4 other approaches. A Cochran Q statistic was used to measure the heterogeneity of instrumental variables (IVs). We screened 133 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (time spent outdoors in summer), 41 SNPs (time spent outdoors in winter), and 35 SNPs (frequency of solarium/sunlamp use) representing sunlight exposure for MR analysis. All selected SNPs had an F-statistic >20, indicating that IVs did not weakly bias the results. The summer outdoor activity trait exhibited significant heterogeneity (Cochran Q statistic = 183.795, P = .002 < 0.05), but we found no horizontal polymorphisms or significant heterogeneity for the other exposure traits. According to IVW estimates, no causal association exists between time spent outdoors in summer and CRC (Odds Ratio, OR = 0.735, 95% confidence interval, CI = 0.494-1.017, P = .128 > 0.017). No causal relationship existed between time spent outdoors in winter and CRC, as indicated by Bonferroni-corrected adjusted p-values. The OR was 0.877 with a 95% CI of 0.334-2.299, and the P value was .789, more significant than the significance threshold of 0.017. The solarium/sunlamp use frequency was not associated with CRC (OR = 1.567, 95%CI = 0.243-10.119, P = .637 > .017). Also, an IVW with random effects was applied to determine the causal relationship between summer outdoor time and CRC. No causal association between summer outdoor time and CRC was found (OR = 0.735, 95% CI = 0.494-1.017, P = .128 > .017). Additionally, 4 additional analyses yielded similar results. The findings of our study suggest that exposure to sunlight may reduce CRC risk, but the causal relationship remains unsolved. There is no evidence to suggest that exposure to sunlight prevents CRC. Randomized, controlled trials are needed to determine whether sunlight exposure protects against CRC.

Interaction of physical activity and low-level air pollution on cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study in UK Biobank.

To investigate theassociations of physical activity (PA), low-level air pollution, and interaction on cardiovascular diseases (CVD) incidence based on the UK Biobank. PA was measured by the International Physical Activity Questionnaire and five air pollutants were estimated using Land Use Regression. All association estimates were based on Cox regression. Dose-response relationship was explored by restricted cubic spline, while multiplicative and additive interaction were examined by Pinteraction and relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). As deviating proportional hazards assumption, we analyzed data as follow-up < 4years and ≥ 4years, separately. PA with 1000-4000 Metabolic Equivalent Task (MET) min/week showed the strongest protective impact on CVD incidence, while only low-level nitrogen dioxides (NO2) showed negative impact among five air pollutants and was considered for further analysis. Multiplicative interaction between PA and NO2 was observed during ≥ 4years follow-up (Pinteraction = 0.049) while not during < 4years (Pinteraction = 0.290). Positive additive interactions were found for high PA and low NO2 (< 20 μg/m3) group (RERI: 0.07, 95% confidence intervals: 0.02-0.11) during < 4years, and for moderate PA with NO2 at 40- μg/m3 (0.07, 0.02-0.13) and < 20 μg/m3 (0.07, 0.02-0.12), while high PA showed similar results with NO2 at 40-, 20- and < 20 μg/m3 during ≥ 4years. PA about 1000-4000 METs min/week showed the lowest CVD risk. Possibility of interaction with PA and NO2 is more likely to present with the increase in follow-up duration. We call for the optimal thresholds of PA, and exploring interaction thoroughly by considering types of PA.

Abstract PO3-08-01: Decision curve analysis to compare breast cancer risk predictions for a polygenic integrated clinical risk model with those of a gold standard

Abstract Risk-based guidelines have been developed to provide advice on options that are available to women who are at increased risk of breast cancer. We and others are focused on improving risk prediction models for general population use. For breast cancer, polygenic risk has been identified as important for risk prediction, especially when combined with clinical risk factors such as family history, anthropometric measures, breast imaging measures, and hormonal and reproductive risk factors. When comparing the performance of risk prediction models, the AUC is most often used but it focuses on performance in terms of distinguishing between affected and unaffected individuals and does not take into account differences in the specificity (true negative rate) and sensitivity (true positive rate) of the models being compared. In contrast, decision curve analysis takes sensitivity and specificity into account and enables the comparison of the net benefit of risk prediction tools at the clinical risk thresholds that are used to guide clinical management decisions. Herein, we use decision curve analysis to compare breast cancer risk prediction guidelines for BRISK and the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) in the UK Biobank, and for BRISK and IBIS version 7 in the Nurses’ Health Study. We evaluated the net benefit at the 5-year risk thresholds (1.67% and 3%) that are used to guide clinical management decisions around risk-reducing medication and at the remaining lifetime risk of 20% that is used to guide supplemental MRI surveillance. In the UK Biobank, BRISK showed a net benefit over BCRAT at the 5-year risk thresholds of 1.67% and 3.0%. The AUCs were 0.649 (95% CI = 0.640, 0.695) for BRISK and 0.567 (95% CI = 0.556, 0.577) for BCRAT and showed that, overall, BRISK discriminated between affected and unaffected women better than BCRAT (P &amp;lt; 0.001). In the Nurses’ Health Study, BRISK showed a net benefit over IBIS at the remaining lifetime risk threshold of 20%. The AUCs were 0.647; 95% CI = 0.627, 0.668 for BRISK and 0.571; 95% CI = 0.546, 0.595 for IBIS, a statistically significant improvement for BRISK over IBIS (P &amp;lt; 0.0001). We also looked at sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value even though these risk models are one-step removed from breast cancer diagnosis by screening/risk-reduction options. The positive predictive values are higher for the BRISK (27.1%) model compared to BCRAT (5.5%) in the UK Biobank dataset and higher for BRISK (15.4%) compared to IBISv7 (14.0%) in the Nurses’ dataset. We have shown the application of a statistical tool that can be used to directly compare risk models at clinically relevant thresholds. We have shown that BRISK, which comprises polygenic risk and clinical risk factors, shows higher net benefit at both 1.67% and 3% thresholds compared to BCRAT and at 20% remaining lifetime risk for IBIS version 7. In breast cancer risk prediction, a tool with high specificity (and therefore a necessary trade-off for low sensitivity) is preferred because we do not want to incorrectly classify women as not being at high risk and deny them the opportunity for intervention in the form of more frequent screening, alternative modes of screening or risk-reducing medication. This improvement in general population risk stratification that BRISK can provide has the potential to have a clinically significant effect on women’s health. Citation Format: Erika Spaeth, Bernard A Rosner, Gill Dite. Decision curve analysis to compare breast cancer risk predictions for a polygenic integrated clinical risk model with those of a gold standard [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO3-08-01.

Associations between eosinophils and cancer risk in the UK Biobank.

Eosinophils exhibit anti-tumor cytotoxic responses in the tumor microenvironment and may contribute to tumor immunosurveillance. To assess the relationship between circulating eosinophils and cancer risk, we analyzed data from 443,542 adults aged 38-73 in the UK Biobank, who were initially cancer-free, had over a year of follow-up, and baseline white blood cell count measurements. Using multivariable Cox regression, we estimated hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for each quartile increase in absolute eosinophil count (AEC) across 58 cancer types, adjusting for relevant confounders. During a median follow-up of 5.8 years, 22,747 incident cancer cases were diagnosed. We observed an inverse association, which met Bonferroni significance, between AEC and overall cancer risk (aHR, 95%CI 0.97, 0.95-0.98). Notably, 16 cancer types showed borderline associations (p <.05) with AEC, with 12 types displaying an inverse relationship. These included four hematologic cancers (acute and other myeloid leukemia, other lymphocytic leukemia, and chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma; aHR range; 0.58-0.87) and eight nonhematologic cancers (melanoma and nose/middle ear, soft tissue/heart, gum/other mouth, tongue, lung, colon, and breast cancers; aHR range: 0.65-0.95). Higher AEC showed a borderline significant association with increased risk for intrahepatic bile duct cancer, Hodgkin lymphoma, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, and chronic myeloid leukemia (aHR range: 1.13-1.42). Our study, the largest to date, provides insights into the relationship between blood eosinophils and a comprehensive list of incident cancers. The inverse association between AEC and overall cancer risk suggests a protective role for eosinophils in tumor surveillance.

No genetic causal association between circulating alpha-tocopherol levels and osteoarthritis, a two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis

The causal association between vitamin E status and osteoarthritis (OA) remains controversial in previous epidemiological studies. We employed a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to explore the causal relationship between circulating alpha-tocopherol levels (main forms of vitamin E in our body) and OA. The instrumental variables (IVs) of circulating alpha-tocopherol levels were obtained from a Genome-wide association study (GWAS) dataset of 7781 individuals of European descent. The outcome of OA was derived from the UK biobank. Two-sample MR analysis was used to estimate the causal relationship between circulating alpha-tocopherol levels and OA. The inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method was the primary analysis in this analysis. We used the MR-Egger method to determine horizontal pleiotropic in this work. The heterogeneity effect of instrumental IVs was detected by MR-Egger and IVW analyses. Sensitivity analysis was performed by removing single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) one by one. Three SNPs (rs964184, rs2108622, and rs11057830) (P < 5E−8) strongly associated with circulating alpha-tocopherol levels were used in this analysis. The IVW-random effect indicated no causal relationship between circulating alpha-tocopherol levels and clinically diagnosed OA (OR = 0.880, 95% CI 0.626, 1.236, P = 0.461). Similarly, IVW analysis showed no causal association between circulating alpha-tocopherol levels and self-reported OA (OR = 0.980, 95% CI 0.954, 1.006, P = 0.139). Other methods of MR analyses and sensitivity analyses revealed consistent findings. MR-Egger and IVW methods indicated no significant heterogeneity between IVs. The MR–Egger intercept showed no horizontal pleiotropic. The results of this linear Mendelian randomization study indicate no causal association between genetically predicted alpha-tocopherol levels and the progression of OA. Alpha-tocopherol may not provide beneficial and more favorable outcomes for the progression of OA. Further MR analysis based on updated GWASs with more IVs is required to verify the results of our study.